We make associations and find patterns even when they are not there. And it's all because our ancestors adopted a conservative approach to making mistakes.
When we face a choice between making a small mistake (a Type I error) such as over-reacting to a rustle in the grass, and making a big mistake (a Type II error), such as ignoring the rustle, and being eaten by a predator, we err on the side of safety.
By making many silly little mistakes - and unecessarily wasting energy when all we hear is the wind blowing - we avoid certain removal from the gene pool, on those fewer occasions when the threat is real.
Says, Shermer, this is why we give credit to God, the angels or leprachauns when there is "no intentional agency" whatsoever. We err on the side of caution.
Our pattern detection devices can be easily tricked. Sometimes we can see two or more patterns in the one image (as in the drawing of the young and old woman).. Some people see patterns when there are none to see.
An overly active dopamine circuit helps you see more patterns, so if you're really creative, you're more likely to be fooled than if you are down to earth and practical. Too much dopamine and you see too many patterns. It's the difference between the madness of mathematician John Nash and the genius of physicist Richard Feynman.
We also tend to "infuse patterns with meaning, intention and agency". This propensity to favor Type II errors, leads us to believe in God, leprechauns, souls, spirits, demons, aliens, the Loch Ness monster, conspiracy theories and invisible agents. That there's someone in there, like in the Wizard of Oz, pulling the strings. Or when we are in trouble, someone big and powerful will rescue us.
So here's some questions to explore these ideas:
1. Brainstorm a list of all the different phenomena that people believe in for which there is little or no objective evidence.
2. What are some of the things you do that fly in the face of your own objective reality e.g. consult the astrological forecast, refuse to walk under a ladder, and why do you still do this?
3. What conspiracy theories do you "kind of" believe in? Give a detailed description of the theory.
4. If you have trouble seeing the patterns to events in your work or private life, how could you be more creative?
5. Give examples from your private/work life where you assume, wrongly, there is an intentional agent working against you e.g. someone is pulling the strings, manipulating things.
6. Give examples from your private/work life of Type I errors that you make, where you over-react to the situation so you don't make Type II errors.
7. Give examples from your private/work life of Type II errors that you have made, where you failed to act, with awful consequences?
8. How could you achieve a better balance between making unnecessary Type I errors and fatal Type II errors?
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